Donald Trump has a very small chance of actually winning more votes than Joe Biden in the presidential election just 3 percent, according to FiveThirtyEights forecast model. Electoral College It also proves too much, calling into question our standard mode of picking state governors. Arguments for keeping the Electoral College Supporters of this institution say that it is a fundamental part of Americas checks and balances on government power. There have been five times in U.S. history where the person who became president lost the popular vote, but won the electoral vote. ), The act says explicitly that the federal government shall reserve and retain complete ownership, possession and control of presidential records.. Opinions on the viability of the Electoral College system may be affected by attitudes toward third parties. If they do, and everything works as planned, then whoever wins the popular vote will necessarily win the electoral vote too. But in most, the penalty for not doing so is only a fine. https://www.procon.org/headline.php?headlineID=005330, Opinion: Getting Rid of the Electoral College Isnt Just About Trump (New York Times) https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/21/opinion/electoral-college-warren-trump.html?module=inline, Opinion: A Case for the Electoral College (New York Times) Analytically, the electoral college privileges small states by giving every state three electoral votes at the start. That is not where this court is going to go. Each week, we explore unique solutions to some of the world's biggest problems. Electoral College/popular vote splits happened in 1876 and 1888 as well. Electoral The Electoral College is just one of those things that stands in the way of progress. When you go and cast your vote, youre not really voting for the president, youre actually voting for electors, who then go and vote for the president. And what of Mrs. Clinton, against whom Mr. Trump still seems to believe he is running, seven years later? In the early days of our countrys formation, deciding on the process for electing a U.S. President was a controversial topic. Moreover, if geographic spread is a good argument for a continental electoral college, why isn't it an equally good argument for an intrastate electoral college for vast and populous states like California and Texas? Many of the arguments on this top ten list are superficially clever, but ultimately makeweight. Nothing new. Our Constitution should not rig elections to favor any particular faction or party. On Monday, it cited that decision in lifting a hold on a Louisiana redistricting case, raising the prospect that the state would have to draw another congressional district where Black voters have an opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice. Now, you can argue that the Electoral Colleges seeming distortions of the popular will arent as bad as they seem for instance, by pointing out that swing states tend to swing along with the nation rather than overriding its will, or that the popular vote winner almost always wins. ET. It doesn't matter much which method we use. This is a court that is not friendly to voting rights, but its also a court that is not going to adopt the most radical theories that would subvert democracy.. Contrary to Justice Alitos cosseted worldview, the real reason no such person would doubt his impartiality is that no such person exists. But its unclear if they would be stopped, should they choose to do so. Demolishing ten straw men this week is no more convincing than was last week's intimation that the electoral college system was a misogynist plot of slaveholders. Ask: What can we do to help? Number 7: The Third Party and Plurality Winner Problem, Another argument often raised is this one:"Direct election could either lead to a low plurality winner (say, 35%) in a three- or four-way race, or would require a high cutoff (say, 45%) that would require a runoff. But does today's electoral college systematically favor any given faction? Invite speakers with different points of view who can share their thoughts and insights about their perspectives. In April, it overruled its 2022 decision, concluding that state courts do not have the power to rein in electoral map drawing by politicians to entrench one party in power. the Electoral College This is really important in 2024 when you think about states like Arizona or Wisconsin that went for Biden but have Republican state legislatures.. Rogue electors have never been numerous enough to actually affect the outcome of a presidential race. And on Tuesday, it rejected the most extreme version of a novel legal theory that could have prevented state supreme courts from exercising oversight of state lawmakers handling of redistricting, voter ID and other policies for federal elections. Thats the state that would get the candidate 270 Electoral Votes if they lost every other state where their margin is smaller. Many critics argue that the electoral college is outdated and doesnt accurately represent the voice of the people. But shifts in the parties support bases since the rise of Donald Trump may have made this irrelevant. Some suggested that Congress should choose the President. Im sure that both sides, the left and the right, will be probing that boundary, trying to figure out what state courts can do and how far is too far. Arizona state Rep. Alexander Kolodin (R) argued that the high court left state legislatures a lot of space to work with. Kolodin, an attorney, is representing some of Arizonas Trump electors. Representing the People: Diversity and Elections, For Educators | For Parents, Families, and Caregivers | Ages 10 and up. Given that, historically, the electoral college leader has also tended to be the popular vote leader, the strategy for winning shouldn't change dramatically if we switch from one measure to the other. It was created between all white guys who did not trust voters to make the right choices and as a compromise between those who thought Congress should make the decision, and those who felt that states like Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, would dominate the presidency. But I think the story is yet to be told in terms of how this will impact the 2024 election and beyond.. The Electoral College is the process we use to vote for our president here in America. (Though of course, well have to wait for the actual results to know for sure.). The Electoral College met in one place, so the people voting to elect the president could get up-to-date information. The Electoral College delivered two of the five most recent elections to Republicans even though the Democrat won the popular vote (George W. Bush in 2000, and Donald Trump in 2016). electoral college and substitute direct popular election of the President and Vice President, and those that would retain the existing system in some form, while correcting its perceived defects. A recent paper by Michael Geruso and Dean Spears looked at this question, and found that it was 40 times more likely that a small number of potentially disputed ballots would determine the outcome under the Electoral College system, compared to a national popular vote. Allowing runoffs would encourage third party spoilers.". In a continental republic of equal citizens, why shouldn't every voter's ballot count equally in a single nationwide vote for president? Their argument is that, since each State is entitled to the same number of electoral votes regardless of its voter turnout, there is no incentive in the States to encourage voter participation. That is, it doesnt matter whether Biden wins New York by a 30 percent margin or a 10 percent margin, since hell get the same amount of electoral votes either way. Really? The bad news is that the court has reserved for itself and for federal courts a power to second-guess state court decisions.. Why or why not? This is an example of how easy it is to prevent common sense progress in this country. Each state gets a certain number of electors based on its total number of representatives in Congress, which reflects population numbers for that state. In both cases, the removal of secret material after their terms ended was apparently inadvertent, and there was no indication that either man even knew he possessed the documents. This has led some to question why Americans use this system to elect their The Electoral College is, essentially, a vestigial structure a leftover from a bygone era in which the founders specifically did not want a nationwide vote of the American people to choose their next president. For example, if a candidate wins 50.1% of the vote in Texas, they It could have been a lot worse, said Joshua Douglas, a University of Kentucky election law professor. And Pete du Pont, a former governor of Delaware (three electoral votes), has made a similar case, calling proposals for a national popular vote an urban power grab.. People also argue that the Electoral College gives way too much power to people who live in swing states, and that the Electoral College makes it harder for third party candidates to win a presidential election. Defenders also contend that the electoral college prevents purely regional candidates from winning by requiring the winner to put together a continental coalition popular in many different regions. Presidency: 10 Arguments in Favor of Keeping the Electoral The court did not adopt the view that state legislatures are this free-floating body that can engage in the most egregious forms of voter suppression and be unconstrained by state constitutions and state courts. Disenfranchisement effected a much larger percentage of the population in colonial times than in the early republic. But to ditch the Electoral College entirely, the US would have to pass a constitutional amendment (passed by two-thirds of the House and Senate and approved by 38 states) or convene a constitutional convention (which has never been done but would have to be called for by 34 states). This winner-take-all electoral system makes it possible for one candidate to get more votes nationwide, but a different candidate to win in the Electoral College and ultimately, win the Presidency. You can also contribute via. Most states use a winner-take-all system, with the candidate receiving the majority of votes getting all electoral votes. If you think the Electoral College should change in some way, what do you think is the best way persuade others and amplify your opinion? The 6-to-3 majority dismissed the independent state legislature theory, which would have given state lawmakers nearly unchecked power over federal elections. you don't address the rural-urban divide, and using the electoral college as a tool to provide balance between the two. Right now, we have minority rule, and that is at heart vastly undemocratic and illiberal, and I don't support it at all. Presidential elections would thus continue to reflect a mix of federal and state laws, and respect proper state innovation within a federal framework--in short, federalism at its best. Voters indirectly choose the president by selecting electors who pledge to vote for a specific candidate. (Naturally, most Democrats want to get rid of it and most Republicans want to keep it, but most independents side with the abolishers.). The net effect is to add to the political deck a pair of jokers-one red and one blue-who randomly surface to mock the equality idea by giving the prize to the candidate who lost the national popular vote. The Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of these penalties this year but other states still dont bind electors, and the justices didnt require electors to abide by the vote in their state. A Supreme Court term that began with dread among voting rights advocates that the justices could upend the rules governing elections is ending with relief and surprise that they have opted instead to largely uphold the status quo. Help to organize a forum (in-person or virtual) at school to discuss elections, voting and the Electoral College. Rulings on cases involving affirmative action, student debt forgiveness, religion, free speech, LGBTQ+ rights and elections are still to come. Arguments for keeping the Electoral College That tends to help Democrats, who win among urban minorities. The decision comes as former president Donald Trump mounts a new campaign and continues to promote lies about the 2020 election. All tennis points are not created equal; but all American citizens are. We just dont know exactly what the test is going to be yet, he said. Overall, the Electoral College is a patchwork Frankensteins monster of a system, which in the best of times merely ensures millions of Americans votes are irrelevant to the But if California, Texas, New York, and other large states can handle recounts for governors' races, a national recount should likewise be manageable, especially with new technology that will make counting and recounting easier in the future. The Electoral College ignores the will as of now it still works in this regard, albeit rural states are slowly becoming slaves to their own urban areas. Congress passed this law in 1978, after the Watergate scandal, specifically to prevent presidents from taking papers that dont belong to them when they leave the White House. For one, the winner of the nationwide popular vote can lose the presidency. Their big compromise? And in election 2000, it again ended up working against women, blacks, and the poor, who voted overwhelmingly for Gore. One potential looming problem for Republicans in the Electoral College is that one of their most important safe states Texas, with 38 electoral votes is becoming more competitive. Instead, they have burst forth with an embarrassing slurry of misdirection, illogic and non sequiturs explaining why Mr. Trump should not be treated like everyone else in the eyes of the law. Had this case come out the other way, the elected legislatures could have tried to take away from the people the power to pick electors to the electoral college, he said. More on all that in our next column. In 2004, John Kerry lost the popular vote by 2.4 percentage points, but he lost the tipping point state, Ohio, by 2.1 percentage points (a 0.3 percentage point edge for Democrats). TEACHERS: Guide your students to practice civil discourse about current topics and get practice writing CER (claim, evidence, reasoning) responses. A state signing on to the compact agrees that it will pledge all its electors not to its state winner but to the victor in the national popular vote but only if states controlling 270 or more electoral votes have agreed to do the same. In other words, people who behave like responsible adults are more likely to get the benefit of the doubt. The electoral college allows our government to undermine the will of the people, either by [allowing] someone who did not win the popular vote to take the presidency, or by faithless electors voting against the will of their own states. Trump stole American property., Mr. Naftali continued, This shouldnt be strange. This process repeated itself across the country, resulting in the selection of the Electoral College the 538 electors who cast their votes for president in their respective states in December. I would call it gaslighting, except its not creative enough. McCarthy's comments come on the same day that Trump for the first time is favored in a hypothetical election rematch against President Biden, per one new poll. Any amount helps. None of this has changed. Vikram David Amar is a professor of law at the University of California, Hastings College of the Law in San Francisco. The justices expressed skepticism of the independent state legislature theory during oral arguments in December. It seemed like it was, ultimately, nuanced, and I think that youre still going to see states thread the needle in different ways because it wasnt like an absolute decision, said Arizona state Sen. T.J. Shope (R). Supreme Court's election rulings give democracy advocates Do you think the Electoral College is fair and equitable? Learn more about the voting and election laws. But realistically, the country is big and broad enough that this couldnt happen under a popular vote system either any regional candidate would need to get some support outside his or her region. We often only know a few months out what our advertising revenue will be, which makes it hard to plan ahead. What did you learn about the Electoral College that you didnt know before? Both men cooperated with authorities, immediately returning the documents to their rightful owner, the federal government. The lawsuit was brought by North Carolina voters backed by voting rights groups against Republicans who control the legislature. Arguments for and Against the Electoral College (Pros But theres one big obstacle: All the states that have adopted it are solidly Democratic, with zero being Republican or swing states. Individuals who support the candidate that lost the Electoral College election generally are against the Electoral College system. Perhaps the worst argument of all is that it is somehow dangerous to prosecute a former president. Five times in history, presidential candidates have won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College. Republicans often win more states overall, but Democrats often win more big states. This argument at least raises a fair point. June 22, 2023 Gabriella Demczuk for The New York Times 2017 By Jesse Wegman Mr. Wegman is a member of the editorial board. Thats the best strategy for reaching that magic number, 270. US election 2020: What is the electoral college? - BBC News It has been updated for the 2020 election. Consider the records act a red light. Ditto for a variant of the tennis analogy, which casually dismisses direct popular election as"simpleminded majoritarianism.". The charges pertained only to those documents that the government had to go in and retrieve. Richard Hasen, a UCLA law professor and director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project, was among those who expressed surprise at the courts decisions on election matters this term. What this decision makes clear is the theory that was embraced by election deniers and those seeking to overturn the 2020 election and in some cases the 2022 election as well will not stand, he said. Under the current system, if it seems clear that one candidate is likely to win a particular state, there is no reason for the other candidate to campaign in that state and try to capture any votes. On election day, Americans vote in 33 (or 34) separate Senate races, each featuring a different candidate match-up. For decades, its been assumed that the 538 electors will essentially rubber-stamp the outcome in their respective states, and they mostly have. If the outcome was just based on the popular vote, candidates could focus primarily on high-population states and urban centers and mostly ignore smaller states and more rural areas of the country. Do you think the Electoral College should be kept, ended or modified in some way? November, 2000) it was about #20 on the list of complaints, far below hanging chads. This historically correct reality would easily support an argument that the electoral college mitigated slavery and disenfranchisement. If Trump wins Alaska, hell get its three electoral votes. Well, theres a lot thats unfair or at the very least undemocratic about the Electoral College.
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